With conflict in the Middle East taking center stage over the last week, there are many questions looming:

• How many countries will ultimately be pulled into this conflict?
• How long will it last?
• How many lives will be lost?
• Will we experience attacks here at home? Will our allies?
• And, finally, but on a much lower level of importance given what’s at stake, what does this mean for the stock market?

I won't pretend to offer any political, military, or strategic assessments here, since there are many more qualified sources for that sort of information. That said, I would wager that the single thing that all of these questions have in common is that the only truthful answer is nobody knows. Seriously, nobody does, no matter how confident they may sound in their predictions.

That’s because war represents the very epitome of uncertainty.

Recent history provides a clear reminder of this fact with the still-ongoing conflicts between Israel and Gaza and Russia and Ukraine. Despite multiple resolution attempts, both illustrate that these sorts of conflicts can go on much longer than anyone might anticipate.

From a humanitarian perspective, that might be a disconcerting thought. But when it comes to markets—where we do have plenty of expertise to offer—the historical evidence regarding geopolitical conflict often looks different than what many people expect.

Historically speaking, geopolitical conflicts have had little lasting effect on the stock market. According to CNBC,

"In data going back to 1980, the S&P 500 on average is unchanged the day after such an event, according to Barclays’ trading desk. Studies show stocks tend to recover within a month after the start of a conflict.”

While that may not provide much initial comfort, it has been representative of our experiences. Regardless of that fact, it doesn't mean there won't be volatility, nor does it mean that there aren’t legitimate reasons for worry, especially given the potential magnitude of these sorts of events.

After all, we are all human, and with that comes concern about what's happening on multiple levels. But, with the unease that so commonly accompanies this type of event, it's worth remembering that we have planned for this sort of thing. Maybe not this exact situation (that would be nearly impossible), but we have planned for incredible bouts of uncertainty, and this is clearly such a time.

As we so often remind you (and don't mind doing so again today), this is why we set aside the assets you may need over the coming years to ensure that your financial life is as minimally impacted as possible when the unexpected happens.

This decision, which was purposefully made before such a conflict came about, was designed specifically to "create the conditions for patience to exist" when patience would be most needed. Times just like this.

This strategy is a critical part of our planning and, I'd argue, is what has allowed many of us to benefit from the incredible stock market run of the past two decades, despite plenty of other disconcerting events we’ve endured along the way. It's what allows us to look uncertainty in the face and make rational decisions in spite of it.

All that said, let me conclude this note with the understanding that worrying about what's going on is both natural and understandable. While the tone of these notes tends to be one of perpetual (long-term) optimism, please know that my optimism is not a disregard for anyone’s feelings at any given moment.

In full transparency, I often feel the same feelings as everyone else, but the reason we plan the way we do is so that we can continue to act (rather than react), financially speaking, with a level head as we look toward the long-term future, where most, if not all, of our goals reside.

If the current situation has you concerned, please know I'm here to talk should you desire to do so. And, as always, if you'd like a review of your contingency plan, I'm happy to do that as well.

Until next time, stay the course.