As we look at markets and the economy, our goal is always to provide perspective. News headlines on Iran, oil prices, and stock market swings can send mixed messages, so we want to make sure you're informed on what matters most to your financial progress.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has been the primary driver of stock market swings recently. Brent crude oil has climbed back above $110 per barrel, raising questions about whether higher energy costs could slow economic growth and push inflation higher. This adds to existing concerns such as the impact of artificial intelligence, broad market valuations, and the path of Federal Reserve policy.

With markets experiencing swings, there can be a temptation to believe that portfolios and financial plans should be adjusted to reflect the perceived uncertainty. However, a key principle of proper planning is that by the time events such as these strike, the hard work has already been done. A well-constructed portfolio is designed to weather different types of market environments without the need for constant adjustment.

Still, markets that lack a clear direction can feel uncomfortable. In times like these, it's more important than ever to not lose sight of long-term goals and investing principles. Here are some perspectives we hope you find helpful.

Market Pullbacks Are a Normal Part of Investing

The stock market has been choppy this year, with the S&P 500 experiencing its first pullback of 5% or worse this year. It's important to remember that pullbacks around this size are completely normal, and the market is still up significantly over longer time periods. In 2025, for example, there were six such pullbacks for the S&P 500 driven primarily by tariffs, yet the market still generated a return of 16% for the year.

This is the foundation of why staying invested has historically been the best approach. Some may be tempted to time the market, but the challenge is twofold - knowing when to get out, and also knowing when to get back in. The market's best days have often occurred shortly after its worst days, so investors who step to the sidelines often miss the very rebounds they were waiting for.

This is not to say that pullbacks are insignificant or that markets always rebound quickly. Rather, they are a normal part of investing that should be planned for, not reacted to.

Higher Gasoline Prices Raise Questions for Consumers

While the stock market gets most of the headlines, one of the most direct ways the conflict in Iran affects everyday life is through the price of gasoline at the pump. The national average for regular unleaded climbed to $4.00 per gallon by the end of March, an increase of more than a dollar in just a month. The actual gas prices we see at the pump are often higher due to taxes and other costs.

As we all know, filling up the car is a non-negotiable expense for most households. While this may be unpleasant and does leave less money available for discretionary spending and savings, the reality is that most households can absorb this without significant financial difficulty.

It's also important to recognize the indirect effects. Gasoline and diesel are basic inputs into nearly everything the economy produces. Transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, and distribution all depend on energy, which means that higher fuel costs can raise the price of goods and services across the board.

Financial markets and the economy overcame similar challenges in 2022. Gas prices hit a record high of $5.00 per gallon back then, above where they are today. And yet, portfolios performed very well over the next few years once the market began to recover.

Comparisons are also drawn to the 1970s during the Arab oil embargo, which resulted in long lines at gas stations and rationing. Today's situation is quite different since the U.S. is now the world's largest oil and natural gas producer. For investors, this means that the best approach continues to be staying invested with a well-constructed portfolio and financial plan.

Takeaways for Portfolio Construction

While there are considerations across each asset class, the past few weeks highlight the power of a properly constructed portfolio. Today, assets like commodities and sectors such as Energy are leading the way. However, this is not about trying to guess what will outperform next. Instead, it is about benefiting from the full range of market movements so that when one part of a portfolio struggles, another may provide balance.

A well constructed portfolio should be designed precisely to navigate environments like this one. History consistently shows that making dramatic portfolio changes in response to geopolitical events and market swings is often counterproductive.

We are monitoring the situation carefully and will keep you informed of any meaningful developments.