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Don’t look now, but the markets are back in positive territory for the year again. It’s not just one of them, but lots of them. Large caps, mid caps, small caps, international, and emerging markets. So too are corporate bonds, treasuries, real estate, and more. It’s remarkable. And yet, the mood doesn’t reflect this recovery. Ironically, just as the stock market was recovering its losses, consumer sentiment was reported to have hit its lowest level in 70 years! Think about that for a moment. Think about all we’ve endured over the last 70 years. Sentiment is worse today than during the stagflation era of the 1970s, worse than after the 9/11 attacks, worse than during the Great Financial Crisis, and worse than during the first global pandemic in a century. That’s pretty shocking. Maybe it has something to do with our inability to escape the headlines, which is a dynamic that is somewhat unique to our time. We’re nearly forcibly exposed to a steady drumbeat of war, tariffs, inflation, political dismay, and recently, sky-high energy prices. Layer on top the narrative that AI is an existential threat to our jobs and society, and it’s no wonder people feel uneasy about the future. And yet, here we are, with the markets back to where they started the year. Or, in some cases, much higher. For all the handwringing and headlines, for all the uncertainty and confident forecasts about the next shoe to drop, the markets have done what they always do. They’ve found a way forward. I share this to remind you why we think about the headlines the way we do. They capture a moment in time, nothing more. They amplify what’s urgent in that moment, not what’s important over the long term. And as you already know, responding to urgency is a reliable recipe for disappointment. Which is why, through it all, the same advice keeps showing up—and keeps working. Stay the course. Stay diversified. Lean on your long-term plan. Admittedly, these ideas often feel too simple to be effective, especially during tumultuous times. But they work precisely because they don’t depend on what’s happening right now. They don’t require us to correctly predict inflation, interest rates, elections, the outcome of various geopolitical events, or the future of artificial intelligence. They depend on something much more durable. That is, the idea that the same human ingenuity and resilience that have powered markets forward through every other rough patch in history will continue to do so. I know it might feel like we’re living through something entirely new and unique, but we’re not. We’ve lived through periods of intense political divisiveness before. We’ve navigated wars and immense geopolitical uncertainty. We’ve dealt with high inflation, deflation, stagflation, and rapid technological change. Each time, the story felt unique—just as it does today. And yet, each time, the markets adapted. Not because markets are prescient, but because they’re a reflection of us. In other words, the markets are resilient because we are resilient. We don’t like the way things are, so we work to change them. Businesses adjust. Consumers adapt. And innovation follows. This combination is how seemingly unsolvable problems get solved. It’s why periods of unrest, eventually, give way to peace again. Progress isn’t smooth, and it certainly doesn’t happen on our preferred schedule, but its track record is undeniable. None of this means the path forward will be easy. It won’t be. Markets will continue to move—sometimes sharply—in both directions. The headlines will continue to sound urgent, because that’s what headlines do. But the lesson remains the same: having faith that the market will find a way to keep moving forward—even when, or especially when, it seems wildly unlikely—is one of the most historically reliable assumptions we can make. In fact, to this point, it’s been true 100% of the time. To be clear, between the time this is written and the time you read it, things may have already changed, possibly drastically. But that won’t change the fact that the most reliable paths to financial success remain patience, discipline, and a commitment to your financial plan. So, until next time, stay the course.
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