As we close the book on 2025, it’s worth stepping back and looking at what investors have experienced over the last ten years. By almost any measure, it’s been an extraordinary stretch for the stock market.

Here’s how annual returns have stacked up since 2016:

• 2016: +11.96%
• 2017: +21.83%
• 2018: −4.38%
• 2019: +31.49%
• 2020: +18.40%
• 2021: +28.71%
• 2022: −18.11%
• 2023: +26.29%
• 2024: +25.02%
• 2025: +17.88%

Taken together, that works out to an average annual return of roughly 16% per year—well above the market’s long-term historical average of about 10%.

That’s not normal. And that’s not a complaint.

Along the way, we did experience a few downturns, including two brief bear markets and a couple of near misses. But when you compare them to truly painful periods like the Tech Bubble or the Global Financial Crisis, recent declines were relatively short-lived and shallow. Even 2020—while terrifying in real time—recovered at historic speed once the health uncertainty began to ease.

We’ve also endured no shortage of alarming headlines. “This time is different” has been declared more times than I can count. And yet, the market’s ability to absorb bad news and continue moving forward has been impressive—and, candidly, has made it easier over time to tune out the noise.

With that context, I want to share two thoughts as we head into the next chapter.

First: It’s reasonable to dial expectations back toward reality

After a decade like this, it’s only natural to assume strong returns will continue indefinitely. History suggests otherwise.

That doesn’t mean a major downturn is imminent. The future is unpredictable, and anyone claiming to know what’s coming next is guessing. Still, markets don’t move in straight lines forever. At some point, they pause. Sometimes that looks like a few years of modest returns. Other times, it looks like a more traditional bear market—one that lasts longer than a few uncomfortable months.

If there’s one consistent lesson from market history, it’s that extremes eventually revert. After an unusually strong stretch, expecting a repeat performance would be optimistic at best.

Second: Preparation matters more than prediction

Because the next decade won’t look exactly like the last one, our focus remains on readiness—not forecasts.

For investors who are drawing from their portfolios, preparation doesn’t mean abandoning long-term investments or retreating entirely to cash. It means ensuring that near-term spending needs are thoughtfully planned for, so short-term market declines don’t force emotionally driven decisions at the wrong time.

For those still accumulating, preparation looks different. It means maintaining the flexibility—and discipline—to invest during periods of market stress. Every meaningful market decline has eventually proven to be an opportunity in hindsight. There’s no reason to assume the next one will be different, even if it feels uncomfortable when it arrives.

As always, we review these considerations as part of our ongoing planning conversations. That said, a new year is a good reminder: if something in your life has changed, or if you’d like to revisit your strategy to ensure you’re positioned appropriately for whatever comes next, we’re happy to do so.

And if this note sparks questions or concerns, please reach out. Staying thoughtful, patient, and prepared has served investors well—and continues to be the foundation of our approach.

As always, stay the course.